By Online Guru Trader | Blog , Newsletter , Trading Article
Recently, Monsanto (MON), even though it went higher, it closed lower. And it has been showing quite a few red bars showing bearish mood. I expect it to go lower. This is a potential trade to go short. I am waiting and monitoring for a good entry to sell on this with limited losses if I am wrong.
By Online Guru Trader | Blog , Newsletter , Trading Article
I have a bullish view on Cognizant Tech Sol Cp A (CTSH) since the start of the week. It has moved up a little since the week started. Based on the technicals, it should go up much more from here. However, if it retraced a little down, I will be looking to get a good entry position on this long trade.
By Online Guru Trader | Blog , Newsletter , Trading Article
After my previous post on 27/06/2016, trade on Kroger Company (KR) has reached 200% based on risk to reward while Phillips 66 (PSX) has went against my trade and hit stop loss. Markets have proved to be more bullish than I expected and has hit all-time high in the US. But even as the markets are more bullish overall, shorting on ConocoPhillips (COP) and Baker Hughes Inc (BHI) posted on 13/06/2016 continued to move lower. Going forward, here are the counters I am looking at to trade.
For long trades,
Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)
Cvs Caremark Corp (CVS)
For short trades,
American Express Co (AXP)
Boeing Co (BA)
Citigroup (C)
Discover Financial Services (DFS)
Energy Transfer Partners LP (ETP)
EOG Resources (EOG)
Halliburton Co (HAL)
JPMorgan Chase and Co (JPM)
Monsanto Co (MON)
Noble Energy Inc (NBL)
Occidental Petro Cp (OXY)
Schlumberger Ltd (SLB)
Suntrust Banks Inc (STI)
Whole Foods Market Inc (WFM)
By Online Guru Trader | Blog , Newsletter , Trading Article
Since my previous post on stocks to monitor on 13/06/2016, most of the stocks have went down and went into profit. I hope those who followed my previous post have benefited. I did not post any long trades on 13/06/2016 because the way I look at the charts, it shows much bearishness in the markets. For me, Brexit was much expected by analysing the technicals. That’s why I posted on 23/06/2016 (almost 20 hours before news of results of referendum was out that started to moved markets down) that I was still bearish with the markets. Going forward, here are the stocks I am looking to trade and hope you will benefit from it.
For long trades, here are the stocks I am looking at.
Kroger Company (KR)
Phillips 66 (PSX)
For short trades, please follow my post on 13/06/2016 as there isn’t any new ones to add to that list.
By Online Guru Trader | Blog , News , Newsletter , Trading Article
Since the second half of last year, I have been turned overall long term bearish on the markets. Those who followed me and been to my market outlook talks would think I am a naturally bearish guy on the markets but it is not true. Since 2010, I have been have been trading the markets with an overall long term bullish view on the markets.
As a trader who use technicals to trade, I analyse the markets based on the charts. So my bearish sentiment comes from analysing the markets through the charts. By using the charts, I am able forecasted the small market crash in July 2015 during the greece crisis and a crash in a bigger extent in August 2015 during the china crisis which caused the dow jones to drop over 2000 points in just 4 trading days. As a technical analyst, I cannot tell you what events or news will move the markets. But using the charts, I can see when a shift is likely to happen.
And right now I am even more bearish than ever, because the chart shows a shift is even more imminent. It also seems like more and more technical traders and analyst are sharing my view and sentiment as well. One of them is this technical analyst who according to the article I just read, forecasted 4 market crashes in the past. I like to share this article with all of you and I hope you enjoy it. Please click the link to read it at http://www.businessinsider.sg/sandy-jadeja-interview-technical-analysis-dow-jones-market-crash-forecasts-2016-6/?r=UK&IR=T#.V2uMFfl95QI
Big crisis lies great opportunities and I believe great opportunity are in stored for the future and I hope all of you out there are equiped with the tools, skillsets and knowledge to take full advantage of it. Even if you are not equip, at least protect yourself thereby protecting your wealth from depreciating. Like I said (which some of you may have heard me say before), one of the greatest wealth transfer in history is starting (the brewing part is almost over, and so it’s starting)
By Online Guru Trader | Blog , Newsletter , Trading Article
Stocks I am monitoring to trade to go short
AXP (American Express Co)
BA (Boeing Co)
BHI (Baker Hughes Inc)
BP (BP PLC)
CAT (Caterpillar Inc)
CELG (Celgene Corp)
COP (ConocoPhillips)
CVX (Cvs Caremark Corp)
DFS (Discover Financial Services)
DOW (Dow Chemical Co)
HCA (HCA Holdings Inc)
IP (Internat Paper Co)
LEN (Lennar Corp Cl A)
RDS/A (Royal Dutch Shell PLC)
SLB (Schlumberger Ltd)
UPS (United Parcel Service)
USB (US Bancorp)
By Online Guru Trader | Blog , Newsletter , Stock Trading , Trading Article
Since my last post on the stocks to monitor, there have been some changes but for the long trades, they are the same 3 counters to monitor. In fact, since my last post on the stocks to monitor, I have entered a long trade into Nike Inc Cl B (NKE). It has gone down a bit as of yesterday’s closing and I am in a slight loss. I will update here again on how this trade runs in my future post.
Nike Inc Cl B (NKE)
Tesoro Corp (TSO)
Valero Energy Corp (VLO)
For short trades, here are the stock counters to monitor.
Autodesk Inc (ADSK)
Anadarko Petroleum Corp (APC)
American Express Co (AXP)
Berkshire Hathaway Cl B (BRK/B)
Citigroup (C)
CBS Corp Class B (CBS)
Canadian Natural Res Ltd (CNQ)
Capital One Financial Cp (COF)
ConocoPhillips (COP)
Discover Financial Services (DFS)
Dow Chemical Co (DOW)
EOG Resources (EOG)
Fedex Corp (FDX)
Hess Corp (HES)
Internat Paper Co (IP)
Invesco Plc (IVZ)
Merck & Co (MRK)
State Street Corp (STT)
Time Warner Inc (TWX)
US Bancorp (USB)
Weyerhaeuser Co (WY)
Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN)
As of yesterday, I have entered a trade into Dow Chemical Co (DOW) and I will look to add more trades on the short side from the above list as I am more bearish now. Maybe I will send out a trade alert through my smartphone app on one of trades. So stay tuned. See you real soon.
By Online Guru Trader | Blog , Newsletter , Stock Trading , Trading Article
Here are the potential stocks to monitor for long trades.
Nike Inc Cl B (NKE)
Tesoro Corp (TSO)
Valero Energy Corp (VLO)
Here are the potential stocks to monitor for short trades.
Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)
Bb&T Corp (BBT)
Citigroup (C)
E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Co (DD)
Exelon Corporation (EXC)
EOG Resources (EOG)
Fedex Corp (FDX)
Halliburton Co (HAL)
International Business Machines Corp (IBM)
Linear Technology Corp (LLTC)
Merck & Co (MRK)
Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW)
I will most likely try to get into NKE trade this week. The trades I posted on facebook on 10th May on DE, EXC and MAR are all in profit. In fact, DE has generated more than 300% profit based on risk to reward. EXC has touched 200% and MAR is also over 100%.
By Online Guru Trader | Newsletter , Trading , Trading Article
From what I see on the e-mini S&P index futures, there are two likely scenarios that will happen but overall, both scenarios will likely point to a downward move. Therefore I am more slightly bearish at the markets at the moment.
The first scenario is that the index will stage a temporary upward move for the next few days due to the short term mood of the market being bullish. If it happens, it will try to test the immediate resistance level of 2105.25. If it breaks through that level then it may be a signal for it to move up further. However, I will look at it again if it happens to see if the short term mood is still bullish. I personally feel that it will not break through this resistance level (though it may test this level) due to the longer term mood of the market being bearish. So the likely scenario is that it may move up slightly and even test the resistance level but not break it and start to continue it’s downward move from then on and go towards testing the immediate support level of 2030.50. If it break through that, then there may be a chance that it will go toward testing the strong support set on 11th of february 2016 at 1802.50. I will analyse this here again when it happens.
The next scenario is that the index will continue to trend down from here (without even going up for the next few days) due to the longer term bearish mood of the market. And if it breaks through the immediate support level of 2030.50, it may move down even more to test the strong support that I mentioned earlier at 1802.50. The move to test 1802.50 if it happens, may take a month or two to materialise and in between this period, there may be short upward move as well.
Because of my view of how the two likely scenarios will map out (both scenarios to move down eventually), I am slightly bearish but personally for the immediate few days to a couple of weeks, I feel the markets will be more sideways due to the conflicting short term bullish and longer term bearish mood.
The e-mini S&P index futures as of last Friday close was 2042.50. I will update my outlook again on this blog after I see how the index moves from here and how the technicals reacts to the move.
By Online Guru Trader | Blog , Newsletter , Trading Article
Risks comes from not knowing what you are doing
Quote from Warren Buffet
Sometimes, when I have talks sharing on trading, I would ask my participants whether they feel trading is risky. And most of them would say yes. Well, the reason why they feel that it is risky is because they do not know what they are doing when it comes to trading. It is the same with most areas of our lives as well.
Ask a established driver whether driving is risky, he will tell you that it is not risky because he knows what he is doing and he has been driving everyday for years with a record of zero accident. Others who have never driven before and do not know how to drive will feel driving is risky because they do not know what to do even if you put them behind the wheels. Ask a professional mountain climber whether mountain climbing is risky, and he would tell you that when it comes to mountain climbing it’s not risky because he knows what he is doing. Everything we humans do in life has risk but if we know what we are doing then it is not risky. This is especially true for trading. Trading will be risky if you do not know what you are doing. It will be safe if you know what you are doing.
Knowing what you are doing also means to be able to know all the possible scenarios that will happen in the future and be prepared and be able to handle it when any scenarios happens. A established driver would know how to react if the car in front of him makes an emergency brake because he has prepared and was mentally ready for it way before the incident happen. He would know how to react even if one of his tyres suddenly punctured on the road while he is driving. He was prepared and knows what he should do to react. He basically knows what he is doing when it comes to driving.
For trading, most people feels it’s risky because they do not even try to look at what they are getting into when they go into a trade. They always intend to go into a trade wanting to win that trade with lots of profits. That’s it. And they go into the trade after that without mapping out the possible scenarios that can happen. So when the trade goes against them and start to go into losses, they start to panic because they did not expect such scenario to happen and do not know what to do next. This few questions start to run through their mind. Should I buy more to average down? If I average down then at what price level should I average down? Or should I get out and cut my losses? If I want to get out and cut my losses then what is the price level to get out? Should I just hold on to the losses as it may rebound? How much losses am I able to take while I hold? What is the maximum losses I can take? Should I hold the trade till it reached the maximum losses I can take? All this should have been asked before putting a single cent at risk. Before even trading the security, all this should have been answered. A proper trading plan would have address this. All possible future scenarios that may happen and how to react to them should be in your trading plan. Below are some of the important items you need to have in your trading plan.
Before going into a trade, pre-determine beforehand,
(A) How much are you willing to lose in this trade such that if you lose that amount(in dollar terms), you will be totally fine with it?
(B) At what point should you cut loss? (This is the point or price level where you say to yourself that your analysis is wrong and you are willing to take limited losses to get out of the trade)
(C) What is the price level or entry point to go into the trade?
(D) How much shares or units should you commit into buying/selling to open this trade? (Once you have pre-determine A, B & C, you will have able to calculate D by using the difference between B & C and dividing the result by A)
(E) If the trade goes in your favor, at what price level are you going to get out with the profits?
Now ask yourself this, would you feel much safer if you do the above, have a trading plan before trading and would know beforehand how much you are going to lose if you lose. Know beforehand how much you are going to make if you win the trade. Would you be closer to knowing what you are doing in terms of trading? Would you feel trading is much safer if you did your plan? Most of my participants after my sharing with them walk out of my sharing session saying they feel much safer trading the markets from then on. It is important to to have a plan to map out all possible scenarios and also in that plan, how to deal with all the possible scenarios. Be prepared before it happens whether for good scenarios when you win or for bad scenarios when you lose. Once you are able to map it out in your trading plan and follow it. Trading will not be risky because you will know what you are doing and is prepared for all the possible scenarios that will happen and is ready to react if they do.
You know what most people out there do? Most people out there do not have a plan. They do not have a life plan let alone a trading plan. That is why most people who trade the markets lose money to the markets. I am not saying that if you have a trading plan you will succeed. But instead, I am saying if you have a correct trading plan and follow it through, you increase your chances of succeeding in trading by a lot. People ask me what if I don’t do that plan. Well, you just increased your chances of failure pertaining to trading. That’s all. I will leave you with a quote I like and benefited a lot in my life and in trading as well which I feel applies to life and particularly to trading as well. I hope you will benefit from it like I do. You may have heard it before but didn’t react to it much back then. I hope it does now after reading my sharing here.
If you fail to plan, you are planning to fail.
Quote from Benjamin Franklin
Cheers and enjoy, Wishing you consistent income from trading.